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By Ido Rosenzweig and Yuval Shany

Introduction

Palestinian Terrorism in 2009
In December 2009, the Israel Security Agency (ISA) published a report on the trends and data concerning Palestinian terrorist activity in 2009.[1] According to the report, not only were there were no suicide attacks in 2009, but there was a sharp decrease in the number of rocket attacks launched from Gaza against Israel, and in the number of Israelis killed or injured as a result of terrorist attacks. The report also describes the latest developments in the terrorist infrastructure in the Palestinian territories, and the connection between Palestinian groups, international terrorism, and terror funding. This article presents a brief summary of the report and a discussion of its main findings.

The Report

During 2009, there was a sharp decrease in the number and scale of terrorist attacks perpetrated against Israel from both the Gaza Strip and West Bank. According to the report, the decrease in attacks from the Gaze Strip can be attributed to "Operation Cast Lead" –  406 of a total of 566 rockets (compared to 2048 during 2008) that were launched against Israel were fired during January (mostly during "Operation Cast Lead"). With regard to the West Bank, the report attributed the decrease in terrorist attacks to the ongoing counter-terrorism activities of both the Israeli security forces (i.e., the Israeli Defense Forces and ISA) and the Palestinian security services. The substantial decrease in the number of Israeli casualties was a direct consequence of the decrease in terrorist attacks. In 2009, 15 persons were killed  (as opposed to 34 during 2008) and 234 injured [3] (as opposed to 679 during 2008). One of the report’s main findings is that over the course of 2009 - and for the first time since the beginning of the second intifada (in the year 2000) - no suicide terrorist attacks were directed against Israelis.

With regard to the Gaza Strip, the report mentions that since the end of "Operation Cast Lead," Hamas has focused its activities on rehabilitating its military capabilities and developing the tunnel infrastructure to facilitate the continued smuggling of weapons and long-range rockets into the Strip. During this period, the Israeli security forces have successfully intercepted dozens of terrorists attempting to enter Israel via the border with Egypt in order to commit terrorist attacks in Israel.

The report also refers to the increasing number of terrorist activists in the Gaza Strip connected to the wider "global Jihad." Individuals associated with this international terrorist infrastructure attempted to execute terrorist attacks and to kidnap Israeli soldiers along the Gaza-Israel border on a number of different occasions throughout the year. Their activities have created tension with Hamas, which considers the global Jihad movement a threat to its control over the area. On several occasions, the tensions flared into violent clashes, resulting in death and injury to activists on both sides.

Regarding the West Bank and Jerusalem, the report demonstrates a continuing decline in terrorist attacks. During 2009, there were 636 terrorist attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem (as opposed to 893 in 2008, 946 in 2007, and 1309 in 2006). The report also mentions that over 90% of these attacks were of an unorganized, autonomous nature (often characterized by the use of Molotov Cocktails).

The report also refers to the situation in Lebanon, and especially to the activities of Hezbollah. The report emphasizes that the ISA remains alert to the possibility that Hezbollah may try to avenge the death of Imad Fayez Mughniyah (on 12 February 2008).[4] Moreover, Hezbollah is known to be making efforts to recruit activists to develop an infrastructure for terrorist activity within Israel’s territory.

In addition, the report refers to a few milestones in the field of terrorist funding prevention achieved in 2009. For instance, on 27 February 2009, the Charity Commission in the UK published a report on the investigation of the "Interpal Fund." Following the investigation, the fund was required to remove itself from the larger "Charity Coalition", which was found to be affiliated with Hamas.

Finally, the report mentions the arrest of the Israeli terrorist, Yaacov Taitel, on 7 October 2009 for allegedly executing 12 terrorist attacks against both Jews and Arabs during the last 12 years.

Conclusions

The year 2009 was marked by the lowest number of Israeli terror victims since 2000. While this decline is partially related to the aftermath of "Operation Cast Lead," it also appears to represent a trend of “combat fatigue” on the Palestinian side, as well as the operational successes of the Israeli security services and their West Bank Palestinian counterparts. In light of this changed landscape, Israel’s official designation of the situation in the West Bank as an “armed conflict short of war” appears in need of revision.

With respect to Gaza, however, the situation is far less stable. Although the level of violence has decreased, the report suggests that Hamas is preparing for another round of hostilities, and that the lull in violence may be merely temporary respite.

Notes

  1. http://www.shabak.gov.il/SiteCollectionImages/english/TerrorInfo/reports/terrorreport2009_en.pdf
  2. Nine were killed during "Operation Cast Lead." 

  3. One hundred eighty-five were injured during "Operation Cast Lead." Regrettably, the ISA report does not distinguish between civilian casualties and members of the Israeli security forces. Such a distinction could have enabled a better understanding of the current trends and dominant modus operandi of the Palestinian terrorist organizations.

  4. Israel did not accept responsibility for the assassination of Mughniyah.