*This article was written before Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with forming the governing coalition for the 18th Knesset. As the coalition has not yet been formed, many of the post-election uncertainties still remain.
Following the February 10th elections to Israel’s 18th Knesset, it is still unclear who will form the next government. Nonetheless, the size and composition of the parties has been finalized.
How does the outcome of the 2009 election compare with the results of the previous election, held in 2006? First, there was a slight increase in voter participation — from 63.5% in 2006 to 65.2% in 2009. Despite the increase, voter turnout is very low compared with the average rate over the past sixty years (78.6%). Second, although there are some major changes in the Knesset’s composition, the parties within the parliament remain more or less the same. Unlike in previous elections, it seems that the elections for the 18th Knesset did not result in the creation of any "single-term" parties—small parties that gain Knesset representation for the first-time by crossing the required vote threshold for Knesset membership.
The following is a breakdown of the election results for the 18th Knesset—not including the votes of soldiers, sailors and diplomats— as compared to the 2006 election results.
Kadima neither lost nor gained seats in the Knesset. Likud more than doubled in size, returning to its status as one of the most powerful parties on the political map. Labor lost a considerable portion of the political influence it had won in the 2006 election, receiving only 13 seats in 2009.
One interesting phenomenon is the growth of the Israel Beiteinu Party, led by MK Avigdor Lieberman. The party was slated to receive 20 parliamentary seats according to pre-election polls. It received only 15 seats in the election itself. This does, however, represent a significant increase from 11 seats in 2006.
The Shas Party received 11 seats, as compared to the 12 it secured in 2006. The Jewish Home and National Union Parties did not gain any seats in the 18th Knesset. Together, the two parties received a total of 7 seats following their unsuccessful attempt to join forces to form a broad national religious bloc. Yahadut HaTora received 5 seats — the same as in 2006. It seems that the religious parties have lost a considerable amount of their power. Once critical for the formation of coalitions, they have become expendable parties of small or medium size. The four largest parties — Kadima, Likud, Israel Beiteinu and Labor — have no religious tendencies and hold 85 seats in the Knesset.
The New Meretz Party was weakened in the 2009 election, receiving a mere 3 seats. Leading up to the election, the party refreshed its ranks and reserved some seats for members of "the New Left" party, in an attempt to draw additional votes. Election results show that not only was the party unsuccessful in its attempts to grow, but it also failed to maintain its former size. Some long-standing Knesset members from Meretz did not make it into the 18th parliament.
As for the Arab lists, 2009 was no surprise — Hadash won 4 seats; National Democratic Assembly (Balad) 3; and Raam-Taal 3. The voting rate of Israel’s Arab population remained unchanged between 2006 and 2009.
The Pensioners Party did not pass the minimum threshold of votes, and therefore, did not make it into the 18th Knesset.
All in all, 12 parties were elected to represent the Israeli population in the 18th Knesset (22 parties did not pass the threshold and have no representation). There are few major differences between the results of the 2006 and 2009 elections, except for the demise of the Pensioners’ Party, which won 7 seats in 2006 as a result of "protest votes". Dissatisfaction with the pool of candidates in 2006 led to a desire to protest the status-quo. Young voters attempted to force a political ‘shakeup’ by voting for the obscure Pensioner’s Party, which had never before had Knesset representation. The more traditional voting patterns in 2009 did away with this phenomenon.
The negotiations paving the way for the next government will begin shortly. Numerous hypothetical scenarios have been considered, including the idea of a national unity government with a rotating Prime Minister. The 2009 election is additionally unique, as it does not guarantee that anyone will be able to easily form a coalition and lead the next government.
In the past, the task of building the governing coalition was given to the head of the party that received the largest number of votes in the national election. Traditionally, this individual succeeded in fashioning the incoming government. According to Israeli law, the president is responsible for assigning this task to the party that, based upon his impression, is most likely to succeed in forming the necessary coalition—in other words; the party garners the support of the greatest number of Knesset factions. In 2009, it is possible that this will not be the case—yet only time will tell. The current situation is unusual to Israel’s political landscape, thereby trivializing efforts to effectively predict the final outcome.