JERUSALEM -- The threat of Iran becoming a nuclear power should not only be the worry of Israel. If I were a Saudi prince, I would now have sleepless nights -- and not necessarily for reasons that usually keep Saudi princes awake while other people sleep. A Shiite Iran, armed with nuclear weapons, will shatter the delicate balance between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in this region in such a way that the Iraqi situation will pale in comparison.
The United States and the West should be concerned as well. A nuclear Iran will not only threaten one of the major oil supplies of the world. Once the Iranians acquire a capability of mass destruction, they will not have to settle anymore with burning American flags or supporting clandestine anti-Western operations; they will be able to openly threaten, not only Western targets in this region, but a good many parts of Europe with their deadly missiles.
As for Israel, there is no need for any guess here: Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly called for the destruction of the Jewish state. Once armed with nukes, this stops being the ranting of a lunatic and becomes a real threat. And if the last century has taught us anything, it is about taking the threats of dictators seriously and stopping them before they put their words into action.
There is, however, one threat which has gained less attention than others. For almost six decades, since the establishment of Israel, Arabs have entertained the idea that one day, the Jewish state will somehow disappear. In 1948, 1967 and again in 1973, they tried to do it by force. At the same time, others, like the late Tunisian president Habib Bourguiba, have argued that the Arabs shouldn't take on Israel militarily, but rather besiege her economically and let her wilt away. A modern twist to this approach was introduced by Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Shiite movement in Lebanon, which is inspired and supported by Iran. Harass ''the Zionist entity'' with terror, he preaches, and it will be torn apart like a spider's web.
Both courses have failed miserably, and Israel is an accomplished fact, home of the Jewish People, an advanced and modern, prosperous democracy. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat spearheaded the Arab recognition of Israel in 1977. Then followed the Palestinians and the Jordanians, with others in the Arab world resigning to the fact that Israel is here to stay.
With Hamas taking over the Palestinian Authority, one wonders whether this gradual process of reconciliation with Israel will continue. After all, Hamas has at its core a charter that calls for the elimination of the Jewish state. Indeed, some pundits argue that it's better to deal with Hamas, which consists of serious people -- unlike Yasser Arafat the crook or Mahmoud Abbas the impotent. With the Hamas guys, at least you know perfectly well where you stand.
Others urge Israel not to be so edgy. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has just told Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz: "Why all this fuss? Remember, we Egyptians had also been talking about throwing you into the sea, and look where we are today.''
That is true, except that the reason why the Egyptians, followed by the other Arabs, accepted the existence of Israel, is not that they became Zionists overnight; it's because they discovered the hard way that there is no way on Earth by which they can destroy the Jewish state. Former Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, architect of Israel's nuclear capability, said: "Between Jerusalem and Dimona [the site of Israel's nuclear reactor], Sadat chose Jerusalem.''
With Iran close to becoming a nuclear power, the old dream of destroying Israel, which has been buried in the back of the minds of many Arabs, might come to life again. Decades of arduous struggle toward peace will go down the drain, and the cycle of violence will only increase.
That Israel will defend itself against such a threat goes without saying. The free world, however, should not re